A two-step identification-optimization approach for climate change control

In this work, an optimization problem to control world temperature anomaly is presented. In particular, the problem is related to the computation of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and greenhouse gases (GHG) emission reduction for the period 2025-2100 in order to maintain temperature anomaly below a selected threshold. In accordance to the last IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) reports and to the discussion of COP26 meeting (XXVIth COnference of the Parties, UNFCCC - United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), two different threshold have been tested, with value 2 degrees and 1.5 degrees respectively. The application of the methodology on the case study shows its capability for the solution of the problem. Nevertheless, while with a threshold of 2 degrees the problem has a solution that respect all the constraints imposed by COP26 discussions, a lightening of the constraints is needed to ensure a temperature anomaly below 1.5 degrees up to 2100.