What's love got to do with it?: Economic viability and the likelihood of marriage among African American men

A key goal of this research was to determine whether selected economic and demographic factors explaining entry into marriage among African American men are constant across time, or are salient only at certain historical junctures. The study uses 1970-1990 Public Use Microdata Sample 5% Census data files from metropolitan areas with large African American populations. The study's key innovation is the use of multilevel analysis to link macro-level indicators with individual level characteristics and marital outcomes. Several structural explanations of change in marriage are explored in this study, and particular attention is given to examining theories which link changes in the U.S. economy to changing family formation among African Americans. In 1970, only individual level characteristics were important predictors of marriage among African American men. In the latter two decades, context exerted more significant effects on marriage likelihood In 1980, the contextual predictors, male joblessness and industrial composition, had a significant effect on the likelihood of marriage. In 1990 the proportion of single women who worked full-time contributed significantly to the model. Female economic independence, represented by the proportion of single women who worked full-time, had a negative effect on the likelihood of marriage among men. These findings suggest that the manner in which context constrains marriage and family formation has changed over the time period in question.