Determining the Business Cycle of Turkey

In this study, it is aimed to examine the basic characteristics of the cyclical fluctuations in the Turkish economy and to determine the business cycles (contraction and expansion). By using the Bry and Boschan (1971) algorithm, the turning points in the business cycles were obtained. In order to determine the business cycle, Turkey's monthly Industrial Production Index, monthly and quarterly Gross Domestic Product data were examined and analyzed. As a result of the analysis, the average business cycle for the Turkish economy was calculated as 5 years. It has been observed that this result is compatible with the related studies in the literature and the cycle characteristics of developing countries. Peak and trough points were obtained with the algorithm named "Harding-Pagan (Quarterly Bry-Boschan) Business Cycle Dating Procedure" in the BCDating R package released in 2019.