Forecasting the term structures of Treasury and corporate yields using dynamic Nelson-Siegel models

We extend Diebold and Li's dynamic Nelson-Siegel three-factor model to a broader empirical prospective by including the evaluation of the state space approach and by using nine different ratings for corporate bonds. We find that the dynamic Nelson-Siegel factor AR(1) model outperforms other competitors on the out-of-sample forecast accuracy, especially on the investmentgrade bonds for the short-term forecast horizon and on the high-yield bonds for the long-term forecast horizon. The dynamic Nelson-Siegel factor state space model, however, becomes appealing on the high-yield bonds in the short-term forecast horizon, where the factor dynamics are more likely time-varying and parameter instability is more probable in the model specification. (C) 2010 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.