Fiscal space in the euro area before Covid-19

Numerical simulations of fiscal space in the euro area, based on 12 different situations, point to the large uncertainty surrounding the capacity of Member States to pay back their public debts. Unless nominal long term interest rates remain low and economic growth resumes at its pre-Covid-19 median, most countries will fail to address debt sustainability. Although the analytics behind this exercise is common knowledge among macroeconomists, it gives an order of the magnitude of fiscal space in the euro area and it also confirms that interactions between the ECB and governments are key to escape the public finances consequences of an exogenous global shock like Covid-19.