Rural land reforms and villagers' preferences for urban settlement: A case study of Shandong Province, China

Based on surveys conducted in Shandong Province, China, this paper examined the interests of rural residents to move to and settle in cities, as well as the factors that motivate or discourage their potential settlement changes. Results of the binary logistic regression analysis showed that villagers' urban settlement preference was related to sociodemographic factors such as gender, age, and occupation. Overall, the separation of the "three rights" (collective ownership, land contract right, and land use right) associated with rural land has strengthened the urban settlement preference of rural residents. Nevertheless, we did not find significant association between land transfer and the preference for urban settlement. For villagers who expressed interest in urban settlement, better job opportunities, education opportunities, and higher income are the leading "pull" factors that would attract them to cities. The attachment to rural life, high living costs, and high housing prices in cities were the top concerns for villagers who did not want to move. The study also found that villagers' desired urban destinations changed with the changing land parameters, indicating that the outcomes of China's rural land reforms may not be aligned well with the policy goals laid in the country's urbanization and rural development plans.