Uncertainties of climate change impacts in agriculture

Crop simulation models are often used to estimate the impact of climate change on agricultural production. But, simulated climate change impacts vary across agricultural impact models due to differences in model structures and parameter values. When comparing crop models with standardised inputs, uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with higher temperatures(1) and CO2 concentrations(2,3). These uncertainties in impact simulations are larger due to crop models, than due to downscaled general circulation models(2). Impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving model routines and parameters with detailed field experimentations. However, multi-model ensemble medians also supply an improved prediction above individual models(4). Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity is needed to assist in the development of adaptation strategies and policies. (C) 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V.