Personal Transport Emissions within London: Exploring Policy Scenarios and Carbon Reductions Up to 2050

This research explored the possibility of achieving significant carbon reductions from personal land-based transport using London as a case study. A profile of carbon emissions from personal land-based transport modes was derived using Great Britain National Travel Survey (NTS) data and a range of carbon emissions factors. A carbon calculator provided carbon consumption per trip. NTS survey data were grossed up to national level using Census of Population data. A baseline of carbon emissions, based on equal per capita consumption, was projected to 2050 using estimates of future population. Four future scenarios were developed and tested using this data. These were: (a) based on the London Mayor's Climate Change Action Plan; (b) a technology focussed scenario; (c) a personal carbon trading scenario; and (d) a radical walking and cycling scenario. Results suggest that the latter two scenarios have the potential to achieve emissions reductions in excess of 80%, while scenarios (a) and (b) are somewhat weaker, though still achieve substantial reductions in carbon emissions compared to business as usual.