The Forecasting of Electrical Energy Consumption in Morocco with an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Approach

The national demand for primary energy has experienced an average increase of almost 5% in recent years, driven by the growth in electricity consumption, which grew by an average of 6% per year between 2003 and 2017, by virtue of the almost generalization of rural electrification and the dynamism of our economy and especially the policy of major works in infrastructure, industry, agriculture, tourism, and social housing. In fact, forecasting the demand for electrical energy remains a controversial issue in the development of the electricity grid and energy management. The ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model is applied to model electrical energy consumption for the annual period from 1971 to 2020. The same data are also used to predicting for 2021-2030 in order to verify the adequacy of the model and to provide information on the state of energy demand in Morocco in the future. The main results indicate an upward trend in electrical energy consumption by the end of 2030, with electricity consumption expected to be in the range of 2039639.09-53589.00 GWh per year.