The next financial crisis

Since the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, much energy has been devoted to efforts to strengthen national and international financial systems. One way of gauging the adequacy and success of those efforts is to "stress test'' them against scenarios of major shocks to national economies and international financial markets. I undertake this exercise in the present paper and conclude that recent efforts to strengthen the financial architecture have been only partially successful. The next crisis will not resemble the last crisis, but a next crisis there will inevitably be.