A condition-based deterioration model for the crack propagation in a submerged concrete structure

In this paper, we want to promote a new approach for modeling the degradation of infrastructures for maintenance purposes. This approach is an intermediate between physical models, that can be complex to apply in a reliability context, and pure probabilistic models, that fail to reflect the physical degradation and therefore suffer from lack of acceptability by the Civil engineering community. We will propose here a new data-driven meta-model. The construction of the state-dependent degradation model will be discussed within an application of the cracking of a submerged concrete structure subject to corrosion. Numerical experiments will be conducted for identifying preliminary properties of our model in terms of statistical inference and reliability concerns.