Study on Spatial-Temporal Distribution and Dynamic Evolution of Eco-Efficiency in China's Coastal Provinces

The dynamic trends and convergence of eco-efficiency were analyzed using the super-efficiency data envelopment analysis model (US-DEA) with undesirable output and the sigma convergence model based on the panel data of 11 coastal provinces in China from 2008 to 2017 in accordance with the eco-efficiency evaluation characteristics of coastal areas. A Markov transition probability model was introduced to analyze the transition probability of eco-efficiency in the time domain and predict the future eco-efficiency evolution of coastal areas in China. The results show that: (1) The eco-efficiency of each province in coastal areas is increasing year after year, presenting a convergence trend. (2) The eco-efficiency of coastal areas is transitioning gradually rather than suddenly. The upward transition probability is greater than the downward transition probability, indicating that the positive probability of eco-efficiency is greater than the negative probability. (3) The eco-efficiency of coastal areas in China will increase year after year in the future based on the prediction of the eco-efficiency transition probability.