Habitat Quality Assessment and Ecological Risks Prediction: An Analysis in the Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal (Suzhou Section)

With the fast pace of global urbanization, anthropogenic disturbances not only lead to frequent disasters, but also cause direct and indirect ecological and economic losses. To reduce the adverse effects of anthropogenic disturbances as part of sustainable ecosystem management, assessments of habitat quality and ecological risk are necessary. The objectives of this study are to analyze environmental conditions of the Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal (Suzhou section) for evaluating habitat quality and habitat degradation, and to conduct ecological-risk early warning assessment in this section. The Grand Canal is the longest and first canal in the world to be artificially excavated from natural rivers and lakes. By evaluating habitat quality using the InVEST suite of open-source software models for mapping and valuing the ecosystem, it was found that the natural lands with high habitat quality such as wetlands, forests and lakes along the Suzhou section of the Grand Canal have gradually decreased, while construction lands such as roads and buildings have gradually increased; there is a clear trend of decreasing areas with high habitat quality and increasing areas with low habitat quality, which is likely the result of urbanization. It was also found that the region has a high habitat degradation index, meaning that areas located at the junction of different land types are vulnerable to the surrounding environment due to narrow buffer zones that allow areas with high habitat quality to be easily affected by areas with low habitat quality. In terms of ecological risks, it was found that the natural land area with high habitat quality in the downstream locations was declining, thereby increasing the risks of pollution and flooding events while reducing the ecosystem's resilience. The valuation model used in this study can be used as an effective decision-support tool to prioritize important ecological areas for conservation in the Grand Canal, and can also be adapted for use in the ecosystem management of other regions.