Past and future chemistry changes in acidified Nova Scotian Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) rivers:: a dynamic modeling approach

Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations have been extirpated from a number of rivers in Nova Scotia, Canada, as a result of acid rain. We applied the model of acidification of groundwater in catchments (MAGIC) to 35 regional rivers to estimate pre-industrial water chemistry conditions and the potential future changes in water chemistry under three acid deposition scenarios for the region. Our model results indicate that water chemistry in the study streams remained relatively unchanged until the 1950s and reached their maximum effects on pH in the mid-1970s. The main effects of acid deposition have been a decrease in pH and an increase in base cations to surface waters, as the ion-exchange processes in soils release soil cations into surface waters. We forecast future water chemistry in the rivers using three deposition scenarios: no change in sulfate deposition from year 2000 and 10% and 20% sulfate reductions per decade. We show that the more rapid the reduction in acid deposition, the faster the recovery. We also show that although stream water acidity will recover within a few decades, in most streams, base cations will not recover to pre-industrial levels within the next 100 years.