Are Indian stock returns predictable?

被引:105
|
作者
Narayan, Paresh Kumar
Bannigidadmath, Deepa
机构
[1] Deakin Univ, Ctr Econ, Financial Econometr Grp, Melbourne, Vic, Australia
[2] Deakin Univ, Financial Econometr Grp, Melbourne, Vic, Australia
关键词
Stock returns; Predictability; Profits; Sectors; Rational asset pricing; India; BOOK-TO-MARKET; EQUITY PREMIUM; TIME-SERIES; SAMPLE; TESTS; ESTIMATOR; CHOICE;
D O I
10.1016/j.jbankfin.2015.05.001
中图分类号
F8 [财政、金融];
学科分类号
0202 ;
摘要
In this paper we show that Indian stock returns, based on industry portfolios, portfolios sorted on book-to-market, and on size, are predictable. While we discover that this predictability holds both in in-sample and out-of-sample tests, predictability is not homogenous. Some predictors are important than others and some industries and portfolios of stocks are more predictable and, therefore, more profitable than others. We also discover that a mean combination forecast approach delivers significant out-of-sample performance. Our results survive a battery of robustness tests. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:506 / 531
页数:26
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [1] Are individual stock returns predictable?
    Zeng, Hui
    Marshall, Ben R.
    Nguyen, Nhut H.
    Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat
    [J]. AUSTRALIAN JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT, 2022, 47 (01) : 135 - 162
  • [2] Are Asian Stock Market Returns Predictable?
    Narayan, Seema
    [J]. EMERGING MARKETS FINANCE AND TRADE, 2015, 51 (05) : 867 - 878
  • [3] Predictable Corporate Distributions and Stock Returns
    Bessembinder, Hendrik
    Zhang, Feng
    [J]. REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES, 2015, 28 (04): : 1199 - 1241
  • [4] Labor income and predictable stock returns
    Santos, T
    Veronesi, P
    [J]. REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES, 2006, 19 (01): : 1 - 44
  • [5] Are hospitality industry IPO stock returns predictable?
    Borghesi, Richard
    Annaraud, Katerina
    Singh, Dipendra
    [J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF HOSPITALITY MANAGEMENT, 2015, 44 : 23 - 27
  • [6] Measuring the predictable variation in stock and bond returns
    Kirby, C
    [J]. REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES, 1997, 10 (03): : 579 - 630
  • [7] Are Islamic stock returns predictable? A global perspective
    Narayan, Paresh Kumar
    Dinh Hoang Bach Phan
    Sharma, Susan Sunila
    Westerlund, Joakim
    [J]. PACIFIC-BASIN FINANCE JOURNAL, 2016, 40 : 210 - 223
  • [8] Are Securitized Real Estate Returns more Predictable than Stock Returns?
    Serrano, Camilo
    Hoesli, Martin
    [J]. JOURNAL OF REAL ESTATE FINANCE AND ECONOMICS, 2010, 41 (02): : 170 - 192
  • [9] Are Securitized Real Estate Returns more Predictable than Stock Returns?
    Camilo Serrano
    Martin Hoesli
    [J]. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2010, 41 : 170 - 192
  • [10] PREDICTABLE STOCK RETURNS - THE ROLE OF SMALL SAMPLE BIAS
    NELSON, CR
    KIM, MJ
    [J]. JOURNAL OF FINANCE, 1993, 48 (02): : 641 - 661