Forecasting future energy demand: Electrical energy in Mexico as an example case

Knowledge of the future energy demand in the world, in a region, or even in a single country, is an important tool for planning and establishing an energy policy either by international agencies or by the respective government. This energy demand will have to be satisfied by an optimum mix of the available energy sources, taking into account the restrictions imposed by future economic and social changes towards a sustainable world. However, forecasting energy demand is a complex task because it is affected by many variables at the micro level. Therefore, a macro model with only a few variables that can be predicted in a global way is needed; i. e. without a detailed analysis for each of these variables. In this work, for predicting the energy demand, the global variables affecting it have been defined first. It has been established that social, economic and technological development aspects can be taken into account by means of three important variables: population growth rate, gross domestic product per capita and energy intensity. Based on the simple model presented here, energy demand can be forecasted in accordance with different scenarios for the variables' future evolution. As an example case, this model has been applied to estimating possible scenarios of the electrical energy demand in Mexico, for the next 40 years. At the end, based on these results, some recommendations are made for electrical energy planners and policy-makers. (c) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.