Determinants of the prevalence of gout in the general population: a systematic review and meta-regression

Studies on the occurrence of gout show a large range in estimates. However, a clear insight into the factors responsible for this variation in estimates is lacking. Therefore, our aim was to review the literature on the prevalence and incidence of gout systematically and to obtain insight into the degree of and factors contributing to the heterogeneity. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Web of Science (January 1962 to July 2012) to identify primary studies on the prevalence and incidence of gout in the general population. Data were extracted by two persons on sources of clinical heterogeneity, methodological heterogeneity, and variation in outcome reporting. Meta-analysis and meta-regression analysis were performed for the prevalence of gout. Of 1,466 articles screened, 77 articles were included, of which 71 reported the prevalence and 12 the incidence of gout. The pooled prevalence (67 studies; N = 12,226,425) based on a random effects model was 0.6 % (95 % CI 0.4; 0.7), however there was a high level of heterogeneity (I-2 = 99.9 %). Results from a mixed-effects meta-regression model indicated that age (p = 0.019), sex (p < 0.001), continent (p < 0.001), response rate (p = 0.016), consistency in data collection (p = 0.002), and case definition (p < 0.001) were significantly associated with gout prevalence and jointly accounted for 88.7 % of the heterogeneity. The incidence in the total population ranged from 0.06 to 2.68 per 1,000 person-years. In conclusion, gout is a common disease and the large variation in the prevalence data on gout is explained by sex, continent on which the study was performed, and the case definition of gout.