Two-year predictive validity of conduct disorder subtypes in early adolescence: a latent class analysis of a Canadian longitudinal sample

Background: Investigating the latent structure of conduct disorder (CD) can help clarify how symptoms related to aggression, property destruction, theft, and serious violations of rules cluster in individuals with this disorder. Discovering homogeneous subtypes can be useful for etiologic, treatment, and prevention purposes depending on the qualitative or quantitative nature of the symptomatology. The aim of the present study is twofold: identify subtypes of CD in young adolescents based on latent class analysis (LCA) and investigate the two-year predictive validity of CD subtypes on deviant and criminal lifestyles. Methods: Adolescent-reported CD symptoms were collected using the National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth. Three cohorts of 12-13-year-olds were assessed during 1994-1995, 1996-1997, and 1998-1999 (N = 4,125). Results: Latent class analyses yielded 4 distinct subtypes: No CD (82.4%); Non-Aggressive CD ('NACD', 13.9%); Physically Aggressive CD ('PACD', 2.3%); and Severe-Mixed CD ('SMCD', 1.4%). Predictive validity at age 14-15 was non-specific, although the SMCD type had, by far, the highest odds of deviant and criminal lifestyle outcomes in comparison to youth with PACD or NACD. NACD and PACD had similar odds of deviant outcomes, even if most NACD youth were subthreshold CD (fewer than three symptoms). Conclusion: In early adolescence, CD is qualitatively and quantitatively heterogeneous, suggesting multiple developmental pathways. However, they appear to predict similarly violent and non-violent outcomes.