A deterministic model of home and community care client counts in British Columbia

In British Columbia (BC) Home and Community Care (HCC) services provide a range of health care and support services for British Columbians with acute, chronic, palliative or rehabilitative health care needs. Although it is not surprising that almost 80% of HCC clients are senior citizens (aged 65 and older), this does lead to some concern. In particular, the most recent population projections suggest that the senior population of BC will double in the next twenty years. Predicting how this will impact HCC is of high importance in preparing for future years. In this paper we discuss the development of a deterministic multi-state Markov model of the HCC system, its validation, and its predictions for future client counts for various HCC client groupings. This model was originally developed for the BC Ministry of Health Services, and is currently being used as a first step to developing a strategic direction plan for BC's HCC sector. The model makes several notable steps forward in terms of research and modelling of HCC. First, past literature regarding models of HCC appears to be only concerned with publicly funded (government run) residential care environments. Our model advances this in two directions by including at home care and non-publicly funded care. Second, our model considers both the predicted changes in the age demographics of British Columbia, as well as the predicted changes in the relationship between age and health status.