EU MILK AND DAIRY MARKET CHANGES AND IMPACT OF GLOBALISATION TRENDS

The results of time series analyses show that the foreign dairy market for the EU28, whether within (intra) or outside (extra) the EU, is largely influenced by seasonality. The influence of the seasonal component was also observed in foreign trade of Germany, which, together with Italy, are the largest importers of milk on the intra-EU market. German exports to the EU countries have been slowly declining since 2012, while exports outside the EU have increased significantly since 2009 (an average of 452 thousand kg per month in 2014). Concerning the development of milk and dairy products trade throughout the EU, imports from non-EU countries are rather steady, while exports outside the EU are steadily increasing, even though there are some barriers (market protection in Switzerland or Canada, embargo on import to Russia, etc.) of exports. The Netherlands is a major exporter of butter on intra-EU markets where the value of butter exports almost doubled between periods before 2009 and post-quota abolition in 2015. With regard to exports of butter outside the EU, the Netherlands together with France and Ireland also have the highest share. In the coming years, global demand for dairy products is expected to grow, which is likely to help both primary producers and milk processors to maintain or increase their existing capacities.