Co-movement of Australian state business cycles

We use a variety of techniques to examine the nature and degree of co-movement among Australian state business cycles. Consistent with the results of Dixon and Shepherd (2001), we find that these cycles move quite closely together, with particularly strong links between the cycles of the larger states. We then seek to understand the causes of this co-movement by using an unobserved components model to distinguish between various shocks and their transmission. Our model implies that the major source of this co-movement in state activity is the commonality of shocks affecting state cycles. In contrast, spillovers of region-specific shocks appear to play only a minor role in creating co-movement, though region-specific shocks themselves have a moderate influence on cyclical fluctuations. These findings are consistent with the results of recent studies for the United States, Canada and Europe, where common shocks have also been found to dominate regional cyclical activity.