Statistical downscaling and attribution of air temperature change patterns in the Valencia region (1948-2011)

This study is based on the statistical downscaling and spatial interpolation of high-resolution temperatures (90 m) over the 1948-2011 period performed for the Valencia Region (east Iberian Peninsula) after considering local topographical factors in the fine-scale distribution of temperatures. The objective was to detect the areas that were potentially more vulnerable to air temperature change. This allowed the detection of local climate change patterns, which were analyzed and found to be consistent in spatial and temporal terms. These patterns indicate a more marked warming tendency in higher parts of reliefs and their slopes. However, this tendency is less pronounced in bottoms of valleys and on coastal plains, particularly for minimum temperatures, while the tendency for increasing maximum temperatures becomes more generalised. These patterns seem to connect well with regional changes in pressure fields, wind frequency, precipitation patterns and sea surface temperature. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.