The WHO MONICA project: changes in coronary risk in the 1980s

Background. The WHO MONICA project is a 10-year study monitoring trends and determinants of cardiovascular disease in geographically defined populations. Methods and Results. Data were collected from randomly selected participants in two risk factor surveys conducted approximately 5 years apart. The net effects of changes in the risk-factor levels were estimated using risk scores derived from longitudinal studies in the Nordic countries. Prevalence of cigarette smoking decreased among men in most populations, but trends for women varied. Prevalence of hypertension declined in two-thirds of the populations. Changes in prevalence of raised total cholesterol were small. Prevalence of obesity increased in about three-quarters of the populations for both men and women. In almost half the populations there were statistically significant declines in estimated coronary risk for both men and women, although for Beijing the risk score increased significantly for both genders. Conclusions. The net effect of changes in risk-factor levels in the 1980s in the study populations of the WHO MONICA project is that rates of coronary disease are predicted to decline in the 1990s.