SERM: A Recurrent Model for Next Location Prediction in Semantic Trajectories

Predicting the next location a user tends to visit is an important task for applications like location-based advertising, traffic planning, and tour recommendation. We consider the next location prediction problem for semantic trajectory data, wherein each GPS record is attached with a text message that describes the user's activity. In semantic trajectories, the confluence of spatiotemporal transitions and textual messages indicates user intents at a fine granularity and has great potential in improving location prediction accuracies. Nevertheless, existing methods designed for GPS trajectories fall short in capturing latent user intents for such semantics-enriched trajectory data. We propose a method named semantics-enriched recurrent model (SERM). SERM jointly learns the embeddings of multiple factors (user, location, time, keyword) and the transition parameters of a recurrent neural network in a unified framework. Therefore, it effectively captures semantics-aware spatiotemporal transition regularities to improve location prediction accuracies. Our experiments on two real-life semantic trajectory datasets show that SERM achieves significant improvements over state-of-the-art methods.