The Development Simulation of Urban Green Space System Layout Based on the Land Use Scenario: A Case Study of Xuchang City, China

The development and evolution of an urban green space system is affected by both natural effects and human intervention. The simulation and prediction of an urban green space system can enhance the foresight of urban planning. In this study, several land use change scenarios of the main urban area of Xuchang City were simulated from 2014 to 2030 based on high-resolution land use data. The layout of each scenario was evaluated using landscape indexes. A Cellular Automata-based method (i.e., future land use simulation, FLUS) was applied to develop the urban green space system, which we combined with urban land use evolution. Using recent data, the FLUS model effectively dealt with the uncertainty and complexity of various land use types under natural and human effects and solved the dependence and error transmission of multiperiod data in the traditional land use simulation process. The root mean square error (RMSE) of probability of the suitability occurrence module and the Kappa coefficient of the overall model simulation accuracy verification index both met accuracy requirements. It was feasible to combine the evolution of the urban green space system with urban land development. Moreover, under the Baseline Scenario, the urban land use layout was relatively scattered, and the urban green space system showed a disordered development trend. The Master Plan Scenario had a compact urban land use layout, and the green space system was characterized by networking and systematization, but it did not consider the service capacity of the green space. The Planning Guidance Scenario introduced constraint conditions (i.e., a spatial development strategy, green space accessibility, and ecological sensitivity), which provided a more intensive and efficient urban space and improved the service function of the green space system layout. Managers and planners can evaluate the urban future land use development mode under different constraints. Moreover, they would be able to adjust the urban planning in the implementation process. This work has transformed the technical nature of the planning work from "static results" to a "dynamic process".