Predictive Value of Pain Sensitization Associated with Response to Exercise Therapy in Patients with Knee Osteoarthritis: A Prospective Cohort Study

Purpose: Knee osteoarthritis (KOA) is a degenerative disease with inflammation, becoming persistent as it progresses, resulting in reduced quality of life. Exercise is the recommended treatment for KOA; however, the extent of pain reduction with exercise is heterogeneous and the prognostic implications of baseline factors in patients undergoing exercise are still unknown. This study examined the association between the response to exercise therapy and clinical outcomes, radiologic severity, and pain sensitization, and investigated the optimal predictive value for the effectiveness of exercise. Patients and Methods: Demographics, radiologic severity, pressure pain threshold (PPT), and temporal summation of pain (TSP) at the knee, tibia, and forearm were assessed at baseline. The pain numeric rating scale (NRS) was assessed before and after 12 weeks of exercise. Patients were divided into responder/non-responder groups according to recommended criteria: responder, >= 30% reduction in pain; non-responder, <30% reduction in pain, and each variable was compared between the groups. The area under the curve (AUC) and cutoff points were determined by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Results: Sixty-five patients were categorized as responders and 26 as non-responders. In the non-responder group, baseline NRS (P<0.01), pain duration (P<0.01), and TSP at the knee (P<0.001) and tibia (P<0.05) were significantly higher, and PPT at the knee (P<0.001), tibia (P<0.001), and forearm (P<0.001) were significantly lower, than those in the responder group; however, no significant differences between groups were found in other demographics and radiologic severity. The variables that showed moderate or better predictive ability (AUC >= 0.7) were PPT at the knee (cutoff points: 241.5 kPa), tibia (307.5 kPa), forearm (318.5 kPa), and TSP at the knee (15.5 mm). Conclusion: Our findings suggest that pain sensitization is associated with the response to exercise therapy. Furthermore, we provide clinically predictive values for PPT and TSP in predicting the outcome to exercise in KOA.