A water quality model for the Patuxent estuary: Current conditions and predictions under changing land-use scenarios

A water quality model was developed for the Patuxent estuary using the modeling framework CE-QUAL-W2 (called W2) to address the impact of current and projected land-use changes (stress) on the water quality. The W2 code, supported by the Army Corps of Engineers Waterways Experiment Station, is a two-dimensional (longitudinal-vertical) model designed for hydrodynamic and water quality simulations of reservoirs and estuaries. The code was configured for the Patuxent estuary using a finite-difference grid for the water column. Also incorporated into the model calculations are flow and nutrient load results from a watershed model. The integrated model was calibrated with data of 1 yr from 1997 to 1998 by matching results with measured temperature, dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll a, and nutrient levels in the water column. The calibrated model was used to predict the water quality effects of different watershed land-use scenarios. Model projection results suggest that reductions of nutrient loads would lead to improvement of anoxic conditions in the bottom waters of the lower Patuxent estuary.