The role of bioenergy in low-carbon energy transition scenarios: A case study for Quebec (Canada)

The Canadian province of Quebec has set for 2030 a greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction target of 37.5% below 1990 levels. Meeting such a reduction target requires in particular a rapid transition to a low-carbon energy system. This paper proposes prospective energy scenarios for Quebec up to 2030, under different GHG emission reduction constraints (up to a 40% reduction). The main objective is to explore the role of bioenergy in achieving the reduction targets. Our analysis is based on the North American TIMES Energy Model (NATEM). It belongs to the MARKAL/TIMES family of models supported by the International Energy Agency, and includes a detailed bioenergy sector. Compared to the reference case (baseline), our results indicate a larger share of bioenergy in 2030 (up to a threefold increase in the most stringent GHG reduction scenario), with up to a fourfold increase in the total amount of feedstock used for bioenergy production. Our study envisions thus a much larger penetration of bioenergy than the one proposed by the government of Quebec in its 2030 Energy Policy.