HYDROLOGICAL IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RIVER BASIN WATER CYCLE: CASE STUDIES OF THE YANGTZE RIVER AND YELLOW RIVER BASINS, CHINA

As the two largest rivers in China, the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers are of great importance for water cycle and hydrological processes over the country, which have been significantly affected by climate change. In this study, by assessing the suitability of multiple GCMs (General Circulation Models) recommended by IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), SDSM (Statistical Downscaling Model) and ASD (Automated Statistical Downscaling) were used to generate future climate change scenarios, which were used to drive VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) and SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) models to quantify climate change impacts in the Yangtze River Delta region and upper reaches of the Yellow River basin, respectively. Results showed that suitability assessment method adopted in this study coupled with statistical downscaling could effectively reduce uncertainties of GCMs. Compared with the baseline period (1961-1990), projected annual runoff in future periods (2046-2065 and 2081-2100) would decreased by 9.5% and 3% in the Yangtze River Delta region. While annual runoff in the upper Yellow River basin during future two periods would decrease by 16.9% and 22.2%. The results are of great significance to future water resources management and sustainable development under climate change in major river basins of China.