Statistical analysis of the relationship between summer monsoon precipitation extremes and foodgrain yield over India

The Indian economy largely depends on agriculture which is highly influenced by the spatio-temporal variability of precipitation. Kharif and rabi are the two main crop-growing seasons which require major proportion of rainfall. Increase in heavy precipitation events, however, can have adverse effects on the crops. This study, therefore, is mainly focused on understanding the variation of extremes in precipitation during summer monsoon season and its impact on kharif foodgrain yield over India. For this, several objectively defined indices of observed precipitation extremes, in terms of frequencies and intensities, have been computed for the period 19512003 using daily gridded data of 1 degrees latitude X 1 degrees longitude resolution. Efforts have also been made to prepare the climatology of extremes in precipitation (1961-1990) to determine their basic characteristics over the Indian region.