Saving global platinum demand while achieving carbon neutrality in the passenger transport sector: linking material flow analysis with integrated assessment model

Securing the supply of platinum-group metals (PGMs) is crucial for the development of fuel cell vehicles (FCV), which are among the most promising low-carbon vehicle technologies in the future. Existing research has evaluated the worldwide demand and supply of platinum-group metals in this century with bottom-up models on the competing battery technologies for electric vehicles. However, it is important to evaluate the material efficiency for emission reduction if an aggressive transition towards net-zero carbon emissions is pursued at the global scale due to the geochemical scarcity of platinum-group metals on earth. This research aims to bridge this gap by linking the material flow analysis (MFA) and a bottom-up integrated assessment model, namely, the Integrated Model of Energy, Environment and Economy for Sustainable Development (IMED|TEC). Through this cutting-edge integrated approach and taking passenger cars as a case study, we attempt to evaluate the nexus between platinum and the emission reduction in CO2 in the use phase of cars under the progressive electrification scenarios towards carbon neutrality within half a century. The results show that the uneven market penetration of battery electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles can lead to geographical disparity in supply and demands for platinum, which will reshape the world material flows. The material efficiency for emission reduction in the use stage of cars during the progressive adoption of carbon-neutral automotive technologies highly relies on the alignment of the recycling sector with the global automobile production network. Global coordination is needed to enhance the material efficiency for rare metals in the transition towards a carbon-neutral future.