An analysis of newspaper reports of cancer breakthroughs: hope or hype?

Objective: To assess the importance of cancer "breakthroughs" reported in the popular media 10 years after their publication. Study design: Questionnaire-based survey in 2003 of expert opinion on the importance of all alleged cancer "breakthroughs" in cancer research or treatment reported in news articles in The Sydney Morning Herald between 1992 and 1994. Main outcome measures: Assessment of each "breakthrough" by an expert in the relevant cancer subspecialty on seven measures of current importance. Results: 31 unique reports of alleged cancer "breakthroughs" were identified, and experts responded to questionnaires on 30. Thirteen of these 30 reports (43%) were judged as not having been supported by further research in the following decade, with three (10%) having been refuted, while 16 (53%) were judged to remain potential breakthroughs, but more research was required. Eight "breakthroughs" (27%) had, or would soon be, incorporated into practice. Conclusion: Cancer research findings reported in newspapers as "breakthroughs" are often not true breakthroughs but may be important for ongoing research. Consumers are likely to be receiving an overly optimistic picture of progress in understanding and treating cancer.