Use of SWAT to determine the effects of climate and land use changes on streamflow and sediment concentration in the Purna River basin, India

A semi-distributed, physically based, basin-scale Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was developed to determine the key factors that influence streamflow and sediment concentration in Purna river basin in India and to determine the potential impacts of future climate and land use changes on these factors. A SWAT domain with a Geographical Information System (GIS) was utilized for simulating and determining monthly streamflow and sediment concentration for the period 1980-2005 with a calibration period of 1980-1994 and validation period of 1995 to 2005. Additionally, a sequential uncertainty fitting (SUFI-2) method within SWAT-CUP was used for calibration and validation purpose. The overall performance of the SWAT model was assessed using the coefficient of determination (R-2) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency parameter (E-NS) for both calibration and validation. For the calibration period, the R-2 and E-NS values were determined to be 0.91 and 0.91, respectively. For the validation period, the R-2 and E-NS were determined to be 0.83 and 0.82, respectively. The model performed equally well with observed sediment data in the basin, with the R-2 and E-NS determined to be 0.80 and 0.75 for the calibration period and 0.75 and 0.65 for the validation, respectively. The projected precipitation and temperature show an increasing trend compared to the baseline condition. The study indicates that SWAT is capable of simulating long-term hydrological processes in the Purna river basin.