Comparison of Time Series with Different Lactation Curve Models in Holstein Cattle

The aim of this study was to estimate the future milk yield with suitable models sustaining fewer errors by using the existing milk yield records in Holstein dairy cattle and to find the answer for the question of "does the Time series method used in the estimation of the lactation curve give more reliable results than the classical methods?" For this purpose, Brody, Wood, Cobby & Le Du and time series models were used for estimating the lactation curve. The research data was obtained from 4 lactation records of 305 days of 80 black dairy cattle compiled from the project conducted in Burdur province between 2009-2011. In the model of lactation curves, the time series method predicted that the milk yield was closer to the actual yield values than the gamma model. In all lactations, it was seen that there were no consecutive relations among the time series model residues, that the residues were randomly distributed, the residues of the model were independent and homogenous, and that the model was suitable for milk production. It can be concluded that the time series method was a good alternative to the traditional methods used in modeling of lactation curve.