Improving the estimation of thermospheric neutral density via two-step assimilation of in situ neutral density into a numerical model

Neutral thermospheric density is an essential quantity required for precise orbit determination of satellites, collision avoidance of satellites, re-entry prediction of satellites or space debris, and satellite lifetime assessments. Empirical models of the thermosphere fail to provide sufficient estimates of neutral thermospheric density along the orbits of satellites by reason of approximations, assumptions and a limited temporal resolution. At high solar activity these estimates can be off by 70% when comparing to observations at 12-hourly averages. In recent decades, neutral density is regularly observed with satellite accelerometers on board of low Earth orbiting satellites like CHAMP, GOCE, GRACE, GRACE-FO, or Swarm. When assimilating such along-track information into global models of thermosphere-ionosphere dynamics, it has been often observed that only a very local sub-domain of the model grid around the satellite's position is updated. To extend the impact to the entire model domain we suggest a new two-step approach: we use accelerometer-derived neutral densities from the CHAMP mission in a first step to calibrate an empirical thermosphere density model (NRLMSIS 2.0). In a second step, we assimilate-for the first time-densities predicted for a regular three-dimensional grid into the TIE-GCM (Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model). Data assimilation is performed using the Local Error-Subspace Transform Kalman Filter provided by the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (PDAF). We test the new approach using a 2-week-long period containing the 5 April 2010 Geomagnetic storm. Accelerometer-derived neutral densities from the GRACE mission are used for additional evaluation. We demonstrate that the two-step approach globally improves the simulation of thermospheric density. We could significantly improve the density prediction for CHAMP and GRACE. In fact, the offset between the accelerometer-derived densities and the model prediction is reduced by 45% for CHAMP and 20% for GRACE when applying the two-step approach. The implication is that our approach allows one to much better 'transplant' the precise CHAMP thermospheric density measurements to satellites flying at a similar altitude.