Testing environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis in the presence of green revolution: a cointegration analysis for Pakistan

Recently, it has been observed that ecological and environmental condition of Pakistan is going worse due to greenhouse gases emissions. Therefore, an immediate response is necessary to mitigate the high impact of these gases. We employed modern time series econometric models to examine the association between green revolution and carbon dioxide emission in Pakistan spanning the time period of 1972-2014. These modern econometrics techniques encompassing of Johansen cointegration, ARDL bounds testing approach and its diagnostics statistics. Evidence of the Johansen model shows significant long-run cointegration between the green revolution and carbon dioxide emission in Pakistan. Results of the ARDL model show that a 1% increase in area irrigated, agricultural tractors and fertilizer used will increase carbon dioxide emissions by 0.35, 0.33 and 0.32%, respectively. Moreover, an inverted U-shaped relation was found between crops production and carbon dioxide emission both in the short and long-run. This relationship indicates that environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis validation prevailed in the presence of green revolution. The ARDL model credibility, stability and reliability were found correct based on the diagnostic statistics. The findings of variance decomposition analysis revealed that the green revolution in Pakistan significantly causes carbon dioxide emissions.