Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein

被引：302

作者：

Asseng, Senthold ^{[1
]}

Martre, Pierre ^{[2
]}

Maiorano, Andrea ^{[2
,3
]}

Roetter, Reimund P. ^{[4
,5
]}

O'Leary, Garry J. ^{[6
]}

Fitzgerald, Glenn J. ^{[7
,8
]}

Girousse, Christine ^{[9
]}

Motzo, Rosella ^{[10
]}

Giunta, Francesco ^{[10
]}

Babar, M. Ali ^{[11
]}

Reynolds, Matthew P. ^{[12
]}

Kheir, Ahmed M. S. ^{[13
]}

Thorburn, Peter J. ^{[14
]}

Waha, Katharina ^{[14
]}

Ruane, Alex C. ^{[15
]}

Aggarwal, Pramod K. ^{[16
]}

Ahmed, Mukhtar ^{[17
,18
]}

Balkovic, Juraj ^{[19
,20
]}

Basso, Bruno ^{[21
,22
]}

Biernath, Christian ^{[23
]}

Bindi, Marco ^{[24
]}

Cammarano, Davide ^{[25
]}

Challinor, Andrew J. ^{[26
,27
]}

De Sanctis, Giacomo ^{[28
]}

Dumont, Benjamin ^{[29
]}

Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi ^{[30
,31
]}

Fereres, Elias ^{[32
]}

Ferrise, Roberto ^{[24
]}

Garcia-Vila, Margarita ^{[32
]}

Gayler, Sebastian ^{[33
]}

Gao, Yujing ^{[1
]}

Horan, Heidi ^{[14
]}

Hoogenboom, Gerrit ^{[1
,34
]}

Izaurralde, R. Cesar ^{[35
,36
]}

Jabloun, Mohamed ^{[37
]}

Jones, Curtis D. ^{[35
]}

Kassie, Belay T. ^{[1
]}

Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian ^{[38
]}

Klein, Christian ^{[23
]}

Koehler, Ann-Kristin ^{[26
]}

Liu, Bing ^{[1
,39
]}

Minoli, Sara ^{[40
]}

San Martin, Manuel Montesino ^{[41
]}

Mueller, Christoph ^{[40
]}

Kumar, Soora Naresh ^{[42
]}

Nendel, Claas ^{[38
]}

Olesen, Jorgen Eivind ^{[37
]}

Palosuo, Taru ^{[43
]}

Porter, John R. ^{[41
,44
,45
]}

Priesack, Eckart ^{[23
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Florida, Agr & Biol Engn Dept, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA

[2] Univ Montpellier, INRA, LEPSE, Montpellier SupAgro, Montpellier, France

[3] European Food Safety Author, Parma, Italy

[4] Univ Gottingen, Trop Plant Prod & Agr Syst Modelling TROPAGS, Gottingen, Germany

[5] Univ Gottingen, Ctr Biodivers & Sustainable Land Use CBL, Gottingen, Germany

[6] Agr Victoria Res, Dept Econ Dev Jobs Transport & Resources, Grains Innovat Pk, Horsham, Vic, Australia

[7] Agr Victoria Res, Dept Econ Dev Jobs Transport & Resources, Horsham, Vic, Australia

[8] Univ Melbourne, Fac Vet & Agr Sci, Creswick, Vic, Australia

[9] Univ Clermont Auvergne, INRA, UMR GDEC, Clermont Ferrand, France

[10] Univ Sassari, Dept Agr Sci, Sassari, Italy

[11] Univ Florida, IFAS, Dept Agron, World Food Crops Breeding, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA

[12] CIMMYT Int, Mexico City, DF, Mexico

[13] Agr Res Ctr, Soils Water & Environm Res Inst, Giza, Egypt

[14] CSIRO Agr & Food, Brisbane, Qld, Australia

[15] NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA

[16] BISA CIMMYT, CGIAR Res Program Climate Change Agr & Food Secur, New Delhi, India

[17] Washington State Univ, Biol Syst Engn, Pullman, WA 99164 USA

[18] Pir Mehr Ali Shah Arid Agr Univ, Dept Agron, Rawalpindi, Pakistan

[19] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Ecosyst Serv & Management Program, Laxenburg, Austria

[20] Comenius Univ, Fac Nat Sci, Dept Soil Sci, Bratislava, Slovakia

[21] Michigan State Univ, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA

[22] Michigan State Univ, WK Kellogg Biol Stn, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA

[23] Helmholtz Zentrum Munchen, Inst Biochem Plant Pathol, German Res Ctr Environm Hlth, Neuherberg, Germany

[24] Univ Florence, Dept Agrifood Prod & Environm Sci DISPAA, Florence, Italy

[25] James Hutton Inst, Dundee, Scotland

[26] Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Inst Climate & Atmospher Sci, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England

[27] Int Ctr Trop Agr CIAT, Collaborat Res Program CGIAR & Future Earth Clima, Cali, Colombia

[28] European Food Safety Author, GMO Unit, Parma, Italy

[29] Univ Liege, Gembloux Agrobio Tech, Dept Terra & AgroBioChem, Gembloux, Belgium

[30] Univ Bonn, Inst Crop Sci & Resource Conservat INRES, Bonn, Germany

[31] Univ Gottingen, Dept Crop Sci, Gottingen, Germany

[32] Univ Cordoba, IAS CSIC, Cordoba, Spain

[33] Univ Hohenheim, Inst Soil Sci & Land Evaluat, Stuttgart, Germany

[34] Univ Florida, Inst Sustainable Food Syst, Gainesville, FL USA

[35] Univ Maryland, Dept Geog Sci, College Pk, MD 20742 USA

[36] Texas A&M Univ, Texas A&M AgriLife Res & Extens Ctr, Temple, TX USA

[37] Aarhus Univ, Dept Agroecol, Tjele, Denmark

[38] Leibniz Ctr Agr Landscape Res, Muncheberg, Germany

[39] Nanjing Agr Univ, Jiangsu Collaborat Innovat Ctr Modern Crop Prod, Jiangsu Key Lab Informat Agr,Minist Agr, Natl Engn & Technol Ctr Informat Agr,Key Lab Crop, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China

[40] Leibniz Assoc, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany

[41] Univ Copenhagen, Plant & Environm Sci, Taastrup, Denmark

[42] Indian Agr Res Inst, Ctr Environm Sci & Climate Resilient Agr, IARI PUSA, New Delhi, India

[43] Nat Resources Inst Finland Luke, Helsinki, Finland

[44] Lincoln Univ, Lincoln, New Zealand

[45] Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, CIHEAM IAMM, Montpellier SupAgro,INRA, Montpellier, France

[46] INRA, US AgroClim, Paris, France

[47] Rothamsted Res, Harpenden, Herts, England

[48] Wageningen Univ, Water & Food & Water Syst & Global Change Grp, Wageningen, Netherlands

[49] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China

[50] European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr, Ispra, Italy

来源：

GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY | 2019年 / 25卷 / 01期

基金：

新加坡国家研究基金会; 英国生物技术与生命科学研究理事会; 中国国家自然科学基金; 芬兰科学院;

关键词：

climate change adaptation; climate change impact; food security; grain protein; wheat; ELEVATED ATMOSPHERIC CO2; CARBON-DIOXIDE; GRAIN PROTEIN; CROP MODELS; YIELD; ENRICHMENT; QUALITY; PRODUCTIVITY; SIMULATION; SENESCENCE;

D O I：

10.1111/gcb.14481

中图分类号：

X176 [生物多样性保护];

学科分类号：

090705 ;

摘要：

Wheat grain protein concentration is an important determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition that is often overlooked in efforts to improve crop production. We tested and applied a 32-multi-model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate. Potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2050 on global wheat grain and protein yield are likely to be negated by impacts from rising temperature and changes in rainfall, but with considerable disparities between regions. Grain and protein yields are expected to be lower and more variable in most low-rainfall regions, with nitrogen availability limiting growth stimulus from elevated CO2. Introducing genotypes adapted to warmer temperatures (and also considering changes in CO2 and rainfall) could boost global wheat yield by 7% and protein yield by 2%, but grain protein concentration would be reduced by -1.1 percentage points, representing a relative change of -8.6%. Climate change adaptations that benefit grain yield are not always positive for grain quality, putting additional pressure on global wheat production.

引用

页码：155 / 173

页数：19

共 50 条

[1] Winter Wheat Adaptation to Climate Change in Turkey
Kaya, Yuksel
[J]. AGRONOMY-BASEL, 2021, 11 (04):
[2] Climate Change and Agriculture: Impact and Adaptation
HUANG Ji- kun
[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2014, 13 (04) : 657 - 659
[3] Adaptation to climate change impact in China
You, SC
Takahashi, K
Matsuoka, Y
[J]. MODELING AND CONTROL IN ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES 2001, 2002, : 97 - 102
[4] Climate Change and Agriculture: Impact and Adaptation
Huang Ji-kun
[J]. JOURNAL OF INTEGRATIVE AGRICULTURE, 2014, 13 (04) : 657 - 659
[5] The impact of climate change on wheat in Turkey
Alper Demirdogen
Baris Karapinar
Gökhan Özertan
[J]. Regional Environmental Change, 2024, 24
[6] Spatial analysis of the impact of climate change factors and adaptation strategies on productivity of wheat in Ethiopia
Araya, A.
Prasad, P. V. V.
Zambreski, Z.
Gowda, P. H.
Ciampitti, I. A.
Assefa, Y.
Girma, A.
[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT, 2020, 731
[7] The impact of climate change on wheat in Turkey
Demirdogen, Alper
Karapinar, Baris
Ozertan, Gokhan
[J]. REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE, 2024, 24 (01)
[8] Dynamic adaptation of maize and wheat production to climate change
Meza, Francisco J.
Silva, Daniel
[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE, 2009, 94 (1-2) : 143 - 156
[9] Dynamic adaptation of maize and wheat production to climate change
Francisco J. Meza
Daniel Silva
[J]. Climatic Change, 2009, 94 : 143 - 156
[10] Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies for Rainfed Wheat in Contrasting Climatic Regions of Iran
Nazari, Meisam
Mirgol, Behnam
Salehi, Hamid
[J]. FRONTIERS IN AGRONOMY, 2021, 3

← 1 2 3 4 5 →