Tourism Development Policy and the Use of Scenario Analysis: A synthesis model

COVID-19's pandemic made us learn to live with a renewed sense of limits and a new level of uncertainty. One of the governance responses that emerged from this panorama was the shift to scenario analysis, which generates narratives about multiple future possibilities. This paper attempts to answer the question of why and how to use scenario analysis when defining tourism development policy. In this study, a semi-systematic investigation is conducted to broaden the scope of discussion and explore new paths associated with the topic of tourism development policy. It is believed that the use of scenarios in tourism development policy can prove to be a valuable experimental technique for developing innovative ideas. With that end, this paper proposes a scenario development process model for policy and decision makers. As in any exploratory study, there are limitations, including the difficulty to generalising certain assumptions.