Risk analysis by integrated fuzzy expected value method and fuzzy failure mode and effect analysis for an elevated metro rail project of Ahmedabad, India

Risk identification and analysis for complex mega infrastructure projects has become an integral part of the present day project management process. This paper aims to develop an integrated Fuzzy Expected Value Method (FEVM) and Fuzzy Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FFMEA) method for a complex infrastructure project such as the construction of an elevated corridor for metro rail in Ahmedabad, India. The design and methodology adopted in this research work was a primary data survey, where the major risky activities of an elevated metro rail infrastructure project were identified through interactions with experts, questionnaire surveys, and personal experience. The identified risks were analyzed for likelihood, impact, severity, detection, occurrence and risk priority numbers. Further computations of fuzzy risk severity (FRS), fuzzy risk priority score (FRPS), and risk rankings were carried out through the new application of integrated fuzzy EVM and fuzzy FMEA methods. It has been found that land acquisition, feasibility, tendering, segment erection, segment casting, obligatory span, construction planning, launching girder, road widening, piles and piers activities were highly risky and had very high fuzzy risk severity and FRPS values (0.605-0.775). Risk mitigation measures were proposed for all critical activities of the elevated metro project in Ahmedabad.