Economic benefit's of a technology strategy and R&D program in carbon sequestration

A modeling framework developed over the past several years for the U.S. Department of Energy's Carbon Sequestration Program examines future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios and quantifies the economic benefits that result from an investment in carbon sequestration technology development. The CarBen (Carbon Sequestration Benefits) model combines results from a general equilibrium model with non-energy data and extrapolations through 2040 to provide a robust, transparent representation of the United States GHG emissions issue. The model estimates needed reductions in GHG emissions by calculating the difference between emissions under reference case and lower GHG emissions scenarios. The reduced emissions scenario is consistent with the Administration's Global Climate Change Initiative (GCCI), an 18% reduction in the GHG intensity by 2012 with steady progress toward stabilization thereafter. Under this scenario, U.S. GHG emissions are reduced by 107 million metric tons of carbon equivalent per year (MMTCE/yr) by 2012, and 1,100 MMTCE/yr in 2040. These emissions reductions are below a reference case that assumes significant technology progress. Further emission reductions from improved energy efficiency, from renewables and from non-CO2 mitigation are determined to be insufficient to meet the target reductions. The residual emissions reduction need is 31 MMTCE/yr in 2012 increasing to 800 MMTCE/yr in 2040. Sequestration options that can meet this need are identified and their domestic capacity and cost assessed. In the reduced emissions scenario for the United States, development and deployment of sequestration technology lowers the cumulative cost of GHG emissions reduction by $4 Billion through 2012 and $250 Billion through 2040.