One-shot decision with possibilistic information

In this paper, a new possibilistic decision approach for one-shot decision problem is proposed where two focus points, called active focus point and passive focus point are introduced for balancing satisfaction and plausibility to show which state of nature should be considered for making decision with possibilistic information. Based on the proposed one-shot decision approach, real estate investment problem is analyzed, that is, whether the landowner should construct a house at the present time for sale in the future considering the uncertainty of house price. Uncertainty of house price is characterized by the possibility distribution to reflect the potential of how much the house price being in the future, which is a kind of likelihood to show the similarity between the situation of housing market in the future and in the past time. The proposed model provides insights into individual investment behavior of urban land development in the real world and shows that possibilistic decision analysis based on active and passive focus points is reasonable for such one-shot decision problems, which extensively exist in business and economic society.