The role of economic development on the effectiveness of industrial pollution reduction policy in Chinese cities

The societal impact of industrial pollution produced by economic activities is a global concern. This paper presents a causal analytic framework to evaluate the effectiveness of government policy on the reduction of industrial pollutants in 284 Chinese cities between 2005 and 2016. This study reports on the interaction between industrial pollution reduction and the level of regional economic development from four dimensions by using analysis of variance (ANOVA),multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) and a bootstrap autoregressivedistributed lag (ARDL) test. The results indicate that city government policies, economic power, the influence of megacities, and the geographical region of the cities have significant effects on industrial pollution, in particular, sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission reduction and dust reduction. After taking account of the interaction effect of city government policies and the other three factors, it was found that economic power is the only factor to have a significant interaction with city government policies on industrial pollution reduction. The ARDL test found long-term causality among industrial pollution reduction, fixed assets investment, and GDP per-capita in city, urban agglomeration, and regional levels. This study sheds new light on the relationship between regional economic development and the development of sustainable societies.