Assessing interactions among education, social insurance and labour market policies in Morocco

This article develops a general equilibrium model to assess the impact that integrated reforms of macroeconomic, education and social protection policies can have on employment. The model presents three innovations. First, it formalizes the production of skills in the economy by following sex-age cohorts through the various levels of the education and training systems, given dropout and repetition rates. Second, it incorporates a module that projects social insurance expenditures as a function of the demographic structure of the country and the rules of the pension system. Finally, it develops a very detailed description of the labour market, where informality reflects strategic decisions by workers and not necessarily exclusion. The model is applied to Morocco. The results of various simulations illustrate the importance of coordinating macro, education and social protection policies in order to achieve meaningful effects on employment levels. In particular, we show that isolated interventions to improve the internal efficiency of the education system can aggravate the unemployment problem; that subsidies to investments are more efficient in sectors intensive in skilled labour; and that not controlling the growth of pension expenditures and the tax-wedge can depress employment in the formal sector.