Scenario Analysis for Resilient Urban Green Infrastructure

With the advancement of urbanization, the stress on the green infrastructure around the urban agglomeration has intensified, which causes severe ecological problems. The uncertainty of urban growth makes it difficult to achieve effective protection only by setting protection red lines and other rigid measures. It is of practical significance to optimize the resilience of the stressed green infrastructure. To this end, we explore a scenario simulation analysis method for the resilience management of green infrastructure under stress. This research applies artificial neural network cellular automata to simulate the impacts of the Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration expansion on the green infrastructure in 2030 in three scenarios: no planning control, urban planning control, and ecological protection planning control. Based on the analysis, we identify four green infrastructure areas under stress and formulate resilience management measures, respectively. The results show that: (1) The distribution pattern of green infrastructure under stress is different in three scenarios. Even in the scenario of ecological protection planning and control, urban growth can easily break through the ecological protection boundary; (2) Residential, industrial, and traffic facility land are the main types of urban land causing green infrastructure stress, while forest, shrub, and wetland are the main types of the stressed green infrastructure; (3) Efficient protection of green infrastructure and the management of the urban growth boundary should be promoted by resilient management measures such as urban planning adjustment, regulatory detailed planning, development strength control and setting up the ecological protection facilities for the stressed green infrastructure areas of the planning scenarios and the no-planning control scenarios, for the areas to be occupied by urban land, and for the important ecological corridors. The results of this study provide an empirical foundation for formulating policies and the methods of this study can be applied to urban ecological planning and green infrastructure management practice in other areas as well.