共 50 条
Coastal subsidence increases vulnerability to sea level rise over twenty first century in Cartagena, Caribbean Colombia
被引:23
|作者:
Restrepo-Angel, Juan D.
[1
]
Mora-Paez, Hector
[2
]
Diaz, Freddy
[2
]
Govorcin, Marin
[3
]
Wdowinski, Shimon
[4
]
Giraldo-Londono, Leidy
[2
]
Tosic, Marko
[1
]
Fernandez, Irene
[1
]
Paniagua-Arroyave, Juan F.
[1
]
Duque-Trujillo, Jose F.
[1
]
机构:
[1] Univ EAFIT, Sch Sci, Dept Earth Sci, Medellin 3300, Colombia
[2] Colombian Geol Survey, Space Geodesy Res Grp, Bogota, Colombia
[3] Univ Zagreb, Fac Geodesy, Inst Geomat, Zagreb, Croatia
[4] Florida Int Univ, Dept Earth & Environm, Inst Environm, Miami, FL 33199 USA
关键词:
VERTICAL LAND MOTION;
SURFACE DEFORMATION;
BAY;
PROJECTIONS;
D O I:
10.1038/s41598-021-98428-4
中图分类号:
O [数理科学和化学];
P [天文学、地球科学];
Q [生物科学];
N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号:
07 ;
0710 ;
09 ;
摘要:
Cartagena is subsiding at a higher rate compared to that of global climate-driven sea level rise. We investigate the relative sea level rise (RSLR) and the influence of vertical land movements in Cartagena through the integration of different datasets, including tide gauge records, GPS geodetic subsidence data, and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) observations of vertical motions. Results reveal a long-term rate (> 60 years) of RSLR of 5.98 +/- 0.01 mm/yr. The last two decades exhibited an even greater rate of RSLR of 7.02 +/- 0.06 mm/yr. GPS subsidence rates range between - 5.71 +/- 2.18 and - 2.85 +/- 0.84 mm/yr. InSAR data for the 2014-2020 period show cumulative subsidence rates of up to 72.3 mm. We find that geologically induced vertical motions represent 41% of the observed changes in RSLR and that subsidence poses a major threat to Cartagena's preservation. The geodetic subsidence rates found would imply a further additional RSLR of 83 mm by 2050 and 225 mm by 2100. The Colombian government should plan for the future and serve as an example to similar cities across the Caribbean.
引用
收藏
页数:13
相关论文