Mining data from hemodynamic simulations via Bayesian emulation

Background: Arterial geometry variability is inevitable both within and across individuals. To ensure realistic prediction of cardiovascular flows, there is a need for efficient numerical methods that can systematically account for geometric uncertainty. Methods and results: A statistical framework based on Bayesian Gaussian process modeling was proposed for mining data generated from computer simulations. The proposed approach was applied to analyze the influence of geometric parameters on hemodynamics in the human carotid artery bifurcation. A parametric model in conjunction with a design of computer experiments strategy was used for generating a set of observational data that contains the maximum wall shear stress values for a range of probable arterial geometries. The dataset was mined via a Bayesian Gaussian process emulator to estimate: (a) the influence of key parameters on the output via sensitivity analysis, (b) uncertainty in output as a function of uncertainty in input, and (c) which settings of the input parameters result in maximum and minimum values of the output. Finally, potential diagnostic indicators were proposed that can be used to aid the assessment of stroke risk for a given patient's geometry.