Regional-scale assessment of non-point source groundwater contamination

Predictive assessments of non-point source (NPS) pollution can have great utility for environmentally focused land use decisions related to both the remediation of existing groundwater contamination and the regulation of current (and future) agrochemical use. At the regional scales associated with NPS agrochemical applications there are staggering data management problems in assessing potential groundwater vulnerability. Geographical information system (GIS) technology is a timely tool that greatly facilitates the organized characterization of regional-scale variability. In this paper we review the recently reported (Loague et al., 1998a,b) simulations of NPS groundwater vulnerability, resulting from historical applications of the agrochemical DBCP (1,2-dibromo-3-chloropropane), for east-central Fresno County (California). The Fresno case study helps to illustrate the data requirements associated with process-based three-dimensional simulations of coupled fluid flow and solute transport in the unsaturated/saturated subsurface at a regional scale. The strengths and weaknesses of using GIS in regional-scale vulnerability assessments, such as the Fresno case study, and the critical problem of estimating the uncertainties in these assessments (owing to both data and model errors) are discussed. A regional GIS-driven integrated assessment approach is proposed, which is based upon cost-benefit analysis, and incorporates both physical and economic factors that can be used in a regulatory decision process. (C) 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.