Primary and secondary effects of social origin at the transition to tertiary education

Following Boudon social disparities at educational transitions can be linked to primary and secondary effects of social origin. Whereas primary effects describe social differentials in scholastic performance, secondary effects represent social differences in educational choices that are independent of performance. We use four panel surveys of graduate cohorts that have obtained eligibility for higher education between 1983 and 1999, provided by the German Higher Education Information System (HIS). By applying counterfactual decomposition methods we estimate the relative importance of primary and secondary effects at the transition to tertiary education. Our results indicate that secondary effects are the main driving force in the creation of social disparities at the transition to tertiary education, accounting for more than 80% of the differential between service class and working class offspring. Particularly financial aspects connected to the choice of post-secondary alternatives, interest in academic work and the type of Abitur degree can explain these effects. Furthermore, even though we observe a small increase in social selectivities at the transition to higher education, the relative importance of primary and secondary effects does not change within our observation period.