The effect of temperature and heat waves on daily mortality in Budapest, Hungary, 1970-2000

We investigated the association of weather on daily mortality in Budapest, 1970-2000, with special regard to heat waves. Budapest has a continental climate and experiences extreme heat episodes. In the past 30 years, the minimum and maximum daily temperatures in Budapest has significantly increased, as well as daily variability in summer. A 5 C increase in daily mean temperature above 18 degrees C increases the risk of total mortality by 10.6 % (95 % CI 9.7, 14.0). The effect of hot weather on cardiovascular mortality is even greater. Six heat episodes were identified from 1993 to 2000 using standardized methods. During each episode, a short term excess in mortality occurred. During the early June heatwave in 2000, excess mortality was greater than 50 % over the three day period. We conclude that temperature, especially heat waves, represent an important environmental burden on mortality in the residents of Budapest. Heat waves that occur early in l he summer are particularly dangerous. There is a need to improve public health advice in order to reduce the burden of heat waves on human health in Hungary.