Estimation of tree replacement patterns in an Appalachian Picea-Abies forest

Patterns of tree species replacement in a Picea-Abies forest, determined by several different methods, are compared and the methods are assessed. Methods are grouped as either understory-based or gap-based estimates of replacement. The understory-based methods characterize canopy understory interactions with spatial statistics, sapling density measurement, sapling frequency measurement, and successor sapling identification beneath live canopy trees. The gap-based methods include sapling density measurement, sapling frequency measurement, and successor sapling identification in tree-fall gaps. Methods except those based on frequency indicate a strong trend of replacement of all canopy species by Abies. Understory-based methods may underestimate canopy recruitment of intolerant trees, while gap-based methods relying on sapling density or frequency may overestimate recruitment of intolerant trees. Estimates based on the selection of successor saplings in the understory or in gaps are reliable. Gap successor estimates consider the process of gap capture and are useful in analyses of forest dynamics.